John McCain = George Bush = Sarah Palin

The main message in the attack ads by Barack Obama against John McCain for the White House in 2008: a John McCain the presidency will be a third term of George Bush. He will be "more of the same."

TV ads now often try to link the two Republicans in various ways but most repeat the statement by John McCain himself that he voted 90% of the time with George Bush.

The statement is strong and the imagery is powerful. That picture of McCain hugging Bush looks devastating. (It has been turned into a huge outdoor ad.)

The basic premise is the George Bush administration is widely viewed as a failed presidency, and he is possibly one of the worst presidents in American history. His approval rating is one of the worst ever: under 30%.

I am the agent of change, says Obama, while McCain is "more of the same."

The Democrats are so convinced of their negative advertising campaign they rarely stray from it. Almost every Democrat, Democratic strategist, or liberal pundit on TV repeats the mantra at least once. Arianna Huffington wrote an article entitled "Sarah Palin A Trojan Moose Concealing Four More Years Of Bush."

Repetition is a central component of branding, and there is no question the Democratic Party has been trying to brand McCain as a Bush third term.

In fact the "same" repetition is so common it seems like propaganda. If you repeat it enough, everyone will believe it: is that their firm belief?

But is it possible to repeat an ad so often that the public gets "ad blindness"? Can it lose its effectiveness after a while? Or has it indeed already overstayed its welcome? Could it even end up hurting the Obama campaign?

Barack Obama has invested heavily in his simple attack message so he may not want to try something different. But going "all in" on the change v. same plan could fail.

Already there are some Democrats who are complaining John McCain has "hijacked" the change message. At the Republican National Convention, McCain said in his big speech that change is coming to Washington and he is the agent of change.

David Brooks of the New York Times observed on This Week with George Stephanopoulos (Sept. 7, 2008), that Obama has declared himself the agent of policy change; whereas John McCain has cast himself as the agency of system change. Brooks wrote: "Mr. McCain has the heart of an insurgent."

The implication is that McCain is, to use a poker metaphor, "going over the top." He is going to reform Washington, not just change some policies. It is a much deeper kind of change. And if the idea appeals to Americans more deeply than the simple policy change concept, and it find a home in the minds of many Americans, the current "McCain = Bush" campaign will fail.

Problems with the Democratic Political Ad Campaign

Notwithstanding the central statement that McCain voted 90% of the time with Bush when he made his comment, the problem with the attempt to associate the two men as if they are joined at the hip is McCain was not close to Bush.

McCain wasn't the vice president. He wasn't in Bush's cabinet. He wasn't in Bush's inner circle. And he was never seen as an advisor to Bush. In other words, there's nothing that shows Bush followed McCain's ideas, and therefore McCain as president would repeat Bush's policy.

There are two obvious exceptions here. McCain is for offshore drilling and when he came out as a proponent for it in the midst of the gas price problems of 2008, Bush copied his idea. This, however, doesn't cause a problem for McCain because the public supports offshore drilling.

The other exception is the surge in Iraq. McCain risked his political career in strong support of the surge which was Bush's idea (or the gameplan of the Bush administration). The surge worked to reduce violence in Iraq. Therefore on this issue, the fact that "McCain = Bush" is not a problem.

Still, Mr. Tracey, the media analyst, notes that Obama has spent millions of dollars in Florida – $9 million from mid-June to right before the conventions – “without moving the needle.”

Conclusion

Linking McCain to Bush is probably the easiest, the simplest, and the most effective way to defeat McCain in the advertising wars. Using the words of McCain to do it is a bonus. Most advertising experts agree it's powerful when you can use somebody's words against them. There is much more juice is making the personal connection between McCain and Bush than merely pointing out they are both Republicans, even though most voters choose a candidate based on the Party and not the individual.

Rating: 3 stars