Hillary Clinton's Red Phone Political TV Ad

Political pundits claim the "Red Phone Ad" approved by Hillary Clinton helped her stage a comeback in the March 4 primaries of Ohio and Texas.

But they don't cite any research or exit polls where voters were asked about the ad, and said, "Before I saw the ad, I was going to vote for Barack Obama. But after I saw it, I voted for Hillary Clinton."

The claim the ad was very effective needs to be judged in the context of expectations and polls for the two primaries in Ohio and Texas. Clinton herself had long claimed both states were her "firewall" states. She would win them no matter what.

The public opinion poll on YouTube.com--where the Clinton campaign uploaded its ad--does not support the personal opinions of various free-shooting political experts thrilled by it.

After 721,390 views of the ad everyone is talking about, it had only a 1-star rating (3,087 votes). (Clinton disabled public comments; viewers were only allowed to rate it.)

The "red phone ad" starts with a night scene showing little children asleep. It's 3:00 a.m., and there's a crisis. Who is going to answer the phone in the White House?

It looks very Hollywood. It sounds like a movie ad, because the male voice over talent sounds a lot like the man with the deep voice who does all the movie ads.

Hillary Clinton, right at the end, picks up the phone.

The suggestion is that Mrs. Clinton is the person you want at the time of a crisis to protect your children.

Based on what? Hillary Clinton's international crisis management resume is a blank page. When you think of all the crises America has faced in the last, oh, 35 years--the time period she uses to frame her career of political service--how many of them immediately bring to mind Mrs. Clinton?

The political advertisement would actually work for a presidential candidate like Rudy Giuliani. We know it applies to him after 9-11, and the respectable crisis management during that tragedy was a central plank of his presidential campaign.

But it's completely unjustified for Hillary Clinton. We don't instantly know how it could apply to her, and she herself doesn't make any crisis management experience a significant part of her campaign.

The TV ad itself gets cut off before she can explain. And since it aired, she has been unable to elaborate and tell us when she became a crisis management expert.

"Asked what kind of crises had tested Clinton," reported the International Herald Tribune, "her team cited her service on the Armed Services Committee, her trip to China when she said women's rights are human rights, and her support from various military officers."

What!?

The fact that the Clinton campaign had to be asked for examples is a problem. The examples it then gave were far from convincing.

Absent specific instances of crises, we the public are forced to speculate on Mrs. Clinton's potential based on temperament.

A man or woman who can handle stress well, including the stress of an international crisis, is the one with a great temperament. We obviously need a steady hand at the wheel.

Unfortunately, however, Mrs. Clinton has not demonstrated during her presidential campaign that she has the perfect temperament to be president. Mr. Obama has shown himself to be the much cooler candidate.

One minute Hillary Clinton is crying; the next she's ecstatic. One day she's very easy going and respectful at a debate; the next day she's mad as a hatter, railing against "misleading" political flyers.

Take a few presidential debates as other examples. She comes across as loud and obnoxious. She cut off the moderators, overruling them, demanding to speak further even though they had politely asked her to stop. Obama didn't do that.

So many photos of Clinton show her eyes bulging, virtually bursting out of their sockets, "flaring."

Experience is the big focus of Mrs. Clinton as the reason why she should be nominated by the Democratic Party instead of Barack Obama. It would serve her well if she is going to approve ads that herald her (implicitly) as the candidate with experience in national crises to reveal what exactly her experience is--if not during the ad, at least after it.

Mr. Obama has criticised Clinton's ad saying it's the old-school political campaigning scheme of fear-mongering. There is no question the ad is intended to produce an emotive response.

Obama quickly countered Clinton's ad with his own. It has a very similar setting (children asleep), but it shows his specific achievements which substantiate the ad.

It notes how he opposed the idea of going to war in Iraq, and argues that he has the right judgment to make the right decisions during a crisis. That's a much more convincing argument--and maintains the theme of his campaign.

Both ads, though, look very low budget. With all the money flying into their campaigns, you might expect better ads.

The Clinton campaign made a mistake using Getty Images video for this ad. Obviously it was trying to cut corners. It turns out one of the kids in the stock video clip which was made eight years ago is now an avid Barack Obama supporter! How embarrassing is that?

It makes a pretty good argument for hiring your own models for political advertisements, instead of using stock. The girl, now about 18, naturally made a good news story, and she showed up on various national TV broadcasts, including one on CNN, to discuss the situation.

The failure of Clinton's red phone ad is hinted at by the fact it has spawned satire. Many mash-up red phone ads have suddenly appeared on YouTube; one of CNN's special correspondents featured them in a short profile.

Rating: 1.5 stars